Ballot order set for 2015 LAUSD board candidate races
LA School Report | December 12, 2014
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After a random draw of letters, the ballot order is now set for how candidate names will appear. Here’s the way they will be listed:
George McKenna, incumbent
(No one else qualified)
Tamar Galatzan, incumbent
Elizabeth Badger Bartels
Bennett Kayser, incumbent
Richard Vladovic, incumbent
How helpful is being listed first? It’s a question that political scientists have studied for years. Here’s the money quote from “On the Causes and Consequences of Ballot Order Effects” — a recent paper by Marc Meredith of the University of Pennsylvania and Yuval Salant of Northwestern:
“We find that candidates listed first on the ballot are between four and five percentage
points more likely to win office than expected absent order effects.”
Theirs is a highly-academic treatise on the subject that takes into account things like ap,j = αp,t(j) + Incp,jλt(j) + εp,j where αp,t(j) = δp,t(j) + Incp,jγp,t(j) + Xjβp,t(j) .
But in an LA Unified school board race, the more likely influences are incumbency, financial support and turnout.
* In an earlier version several names were mistakenly reversed. This version correct that.