Your donation will help us produce journalism like this. Please give today.

OK, so let’s play this out.

One of the Mónicas — Ratliff or García, or maybe both — offers a resolution next week waiving the rule that sets term limits at two, enabling Richard Vladovic to serve a third one-year term as the LA Unified board president.

The effort needs four votes to pass. How do the members vote? Here’s a guess:

Mónica García:  Already indicating she’s in favor of a one-year suspension of current rules, she votes yes.

Mónica Ratliff: Ditto.

Newly-elected Ref Rodriguez: He votes for it. Why? The last person he wants as board president is Steve Zimmer, the current vice president. Zimmer trashed Rodriguez for standing by as Rodriguez surrogates trashed Bennett Kayser in the election campaign.

Newly-elected Scott Schmerelson: He favors term limits so he’s a no vote.

George McKenna: On Tuesday, he voted against Ratliff’s resolution to waive the rule, so he’s a no. Unless he flips.

Zimmer: No.

That makes it 3-3, with Vladovic’s vote decisive.

Vladovic voted for term limits in 2013. On Tuesday, he abstained (along with Kayser), leaving Ratliff’s effort one vote short of passing. Does he abstain again, thereby assuring that the gavel passes into new hands? 

It comes down to how badly he wants to serve another year as president. It also comes down to how active a role he wants in the search process for who succeeds Ray Cortines as the next superintendent.

Vladovic has become much more assertive in recent months as board president. He’s appeared more energized and engaged.

If he votes no or abstains, he would appear consistent to his position, respectful of the board rules as they are, and the board will have a new president.

A yes vote would require an explanation.

The members vote in alphabetical order. If this speculation holds, it would be 3-2 in favor of the one-year waiver when it’s Vladovic’s turn, which means Zimmer will know the outcome before it’s his.